The price of antimony closed 2024 just under $40,000/tonne leaving battery manufacturers wondering how much further the price of the metal will go in the year ahead.
Antimony is a key alloy component in stationary lead batteries.
The price of antimony has risen by 250% since the start of the year. This follows a decision by China in August — that came into force on September 15 — whereby six antimony-related products became subject to restrictions of ‘critical mineral shipments in the name of national security’.
It is this shortage, and the previous anticipation of a decision by the Chinese authorities earlier in the year, that has driven up the price.
“Motive power batteries using tubular grids require a much higher antimony content in their lead alloys than automotive alloys, using antimony typically up to 5% or more for strength and the greater fluidity needed to cast those long, thin grid spines. This makes up around a third of the lead in such a battery, so the extra antimony cost piles on quickly,” said Farid Ahmed, VP global strategy & business development at Ace Green Recycling.
Another lead battery consultant told Batteries International: “I’m now receiving calls from manufacturers wanting to know what levels can be lowered without dramatically affecting performance and what alternatives are open.”
And a third consultant approached by this magazine said he had already held a similar conversation about the subject.
The implications for battery manufacturers are serious. “For a couple of decades now, as most automotive batteries become maintenance-free, the industry was expecting to be awash with excess antimony coming back in scrap,” said Ahmed.
“This hasn’t happened because there’s only been a very gentle downward trend towards reduced antimony content and, at best, recyclers are squeaking by with just enough of this alloying addition, while the majority are still forced to supplement their feed with expensive purchases of the pure metal to make up a shortfall.
“On the upside for smelters, they are only paying for the antimony in scrap at the price of lead, but charging for it in finished alloys at elevated levels, if not right up to the price of new antimony..”
China produces around 48% of the world’s antimony. (It also accounts for 63% of US imports of the metal.) According to DDIQ Analytics in 2023 Tajikistan also produced around 25% of the world’s supply of the metal. This falls to 7% Turkey, 6% Myanmar, 5% Russia and 4% Bolivia. Australia has recently announced that it has gold-antimony mines that could soon challenge other countries’ stake in the business.
Other industries aside from batteries use antimony most notably in photovoltaic cells — a rapidly growing area of business as well as fire retardants, ammunition and radiation shielding.
But how serious is this? One of the consultants who talked to Batteries International said: “We’ve had similar politically-induced shortages like this before. One of the odd things about these situations is that we tend to ride through them — or at least until the next alloy shortage of another metal happens.
“They loom large, for a while, and then fall out of sight.”
China has also banned exports of gallium and germanium to the United States, but this will have limited impact as the US has stopped buying these critical minerals from China.
The US has already diversified its supply chains away from China where possible, buying more from southeast Asia. However, it is unclear in the near-term how they will be able to fill the gap now left by China.
China’s dominance in critical minerals has fuelled concern about which other metals could be marked for the next round of export curbs. One analyst reckoned that China could next target manganese and bismuth.
BOXED ITEM
US Gold/Antimony mine advances
Perpetua Resources announced on January 6 it had achieved a major milestone with the US Forest Service’s issuance of the Final Record of Decision for its Stibnite Gold Project in the US state of Idaho. Antimony and gold are frequently found together — like lead and zinc — and gold is extracted from the antimony ore.
The FROD decision clears the path for the redevelopment of the only identified antimony reserve in the United States — “a project that could significantly bolster the nation’s strategic mineral security,” says the firm.
The firm anticipates that the project should produce an estimated 148 million pounds of antimony (67 million kilograms over its first six years), supplying roughly 35% of US annual demand based on 2022 consumption levels.
