June 29, 2025: The global supply of refined lead metal exceeded demand by 22kt during the first four months of this year — with reported stock levels over the period increasing by 13kt, according to latest data published on June 18.

The ILZSG’s data is in line with forecasts from James Griffiths, lead analyst at CRU, at the recent BCI convention in San Antonio and his presentation this week at Pb2025 in Amsterdam that the price of lead will be trading in a steady band around today’s levels.

The Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group’s (ILZSG) provisional report of a further rise in the supply surplus comes on the back of figures for 2024, released by the body in January.

Meanwhile, the group said global lead mine production in the first quarter of this year rose by 1.4%. This was primarily a consequence of increases China, Peru and Europe, where new mining capacity was recently commissioned.

Growth of 1.4% in global lead metal production was mainly the result of rises in Canada, China, India, South Korea and Sweden.

However, these increases were partially offset by reductions in Japan, Kazakhstan and the UK, the ILZSG said.

Refined lead metal usage grew by 2.6%, mainly as a result of rises in South Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan, the US and Vietnam. Demand in Europe was also up, influenced by increases in the Czech Republic, France and Germany.

But in India and Japan, usage was lower than during the same period of 2024.

Chinese imports of lead contained in lead concentrates during the first quarter grew by 43% to 255kt. Net imports of refined lead metal totalled 4kt, compared to net exports of 12kt in the first four months of 2024.

He said global demand for refined lead metal was set to edge upwards this year, with the US expected to lead the way in a turnaround from a fall last year.