October 25, 2025: Financial advisory firm the deVere Group has said the intensifying global battle for control of the rare earths and critical minerals market will be one of the defining investment themes of 2026.
The US and China are driving the rare earths ‘arms race’ as they battle for control of the materials powering battery technologies and a range of systems and innovations essential to the modern economy, deVere said in analysis released on October 20.
According to deVere, China controls around 70% of mining and close to 90% of processing capacity of minerals key to EVs, smartphones and advanced weapons systems.
However, the Trump administration’s fightback, taking stakes in North American miners and with plans to build a strategic mineral reserve, “marks the start of a new industrial cycle”, said Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere.
“Rare earths have moved from the periphery of the commodities market to the centre of global strategy.
“The battle to secure them will shape trade, technology, and investment decisions for years to come.”
Green said the US bid to reclaim control of its supply chains and reduce its vulnerability to Beijing is not just “policy theatre… it’s the largest coordinated push for resource security in a generation”.
Meanwhile, deVere analysts expect continued volatility in the sector as governments intervene and policy announcements move prices.
Batteries International reported earlier this month that China was slapping a fresh raft of export restrictions on technologies critical for manufacturing EV batteries in a move potentially set to further destabilize global markets.
Exports of items related to superhard materials, equipment and raw materials related to rare earths, five medium and heavy rare earth elements including holmium, lithium batteries, as well as synthetic graphite anode materials, will not be permitted from November 8 without approval.
This April, plans to construct a US lithium extraction facility to help expand domestic battery material production were designated as a federal priority project.
In September, the US Geological Survey started airborne surveys over portions of the Blue Mountains in California and adjacent areas to identify potential sites for the recovery of critical minerals essential to battery manufacturing and other industries.
The launch came just weeks after moves to add lead to the nation’s list of critical minerals, along with silicon and copper.
