July 6, 2023: Minerals and metals required for the global clean energy transition, including electric transportation, may need investments of up to $4 trillion by 2030 — but temporary supply chain shortages could still hamper progress, according to a new study.

Analysis published today by McKinsey & Company says investments in mining, refining, and smelting will need to increase to around $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030 (about $300 billion to $400 billion per year), the report says.

Meanwhile, an additional 300,000 to 600,000 specialized mining professionals will be needed worldwide and an additional 200GW to 500GW will need to come online by 2030 to power these assets, equivalent to 5% to 10% of estimated solar and wind power capacity by 2030.

There are likely to be modest shortages of around 10%-20% of nickel and up to 70% of dysprosium, the highly magnetic rare-earth metal used in most electric motors. These shortages will hinder the speed of decarbonization.

The report forecasts continued high concentration of mineral and metals supplies in a handful of countries including China, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia.

Combined with a regulatory landscape that is increasingly focused on regionalization — as seen through the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan — these concentrated supplies could affect regional access to materials, even when the global market is balanced.

According to the report, it will be crucial to scale up materials supply projects already announced, but this will require mining “to accelerate beyond historical growth rates for many materials”.

Smoother permitting processes, timely infrastructure deployment, equipment availability and adequate water resources will also be key.