January 30, 2020: The coronavirus outbreak will force lead-acid battery makers in China to extend their shutdown rather than re-open after the Chinese New Year break, which officially ends on February 2, the Shanghai Metals Market said on January 29.

Most smelters, however, did not stop operating during the holiday and would not stop now, the SMM said.

The government had extended the seven-day holiday to February 9 across ‘major production-oriented provinces/cities’ to try to control the spread of the disease, which has now been reported in all of China’s provinces and several other countries.

It had killed more than 170 people and infected more than 7,700 as BESB went to press.

“Most distributors and retailers are unlikely to re-open until at least February 9, and some distributors told SMM that their return will depend on the developments on the coronavirus outbreak,” the SMM said.

As the disease continues to spread, analysts are still trying to gauge the impact the crisis could have on the lead battery and related industries.

Farid Ahmed, principal analyst, lead markets for Wood Mackenzie, agreed that primary lead smelters would be likely to resume production, if they had stopped for the Spring Festival, while secondaries and downstream processors would be shut down until February 9.

“So that will tighten lead supply and battery availability for the moment,” he said. “However, if people aren’t using their vehicles nearly so much, that means fewer dead batteries.

“Longer term, and it’s too early to predict with any confidence, it really could attenuate battery demand if the country is immobilized for long.”