September 26, 2025: The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s decision to lift a blanket ban on cobalt exports next month is unlikely to reverse the sluggishness in the global EV market — where the focus will continue to shift to LFP batteries — and could fuel uncertainties, say analysts.
The major policy switch by the world’s top cobalt producer, which accounts for more than 70% of global supply, will see the introduction of a quota-based system from October 16.
According to DRC’s Strategic Minerals Market Regulatory and Control Authority (ARECOMS), between October 16 and December 31 a maximum volume of 18,125 tonnes of cobalt will be authorized for export, with 3,625 tonnes permitted in October, 7,250 tonnes in November and a further 7,250 tonnes in December.
From January 1 through to the end of 2026, a maximum volume of 96,600 tonnes of cobalt will be authorized for export.
Cobalt lead at research consultancy CRU, Thomas Matthews, told Batteries International on September 25: “At the start of this year, cobalt metal prices were at the lowest levels on record in real terms.
“Ultimately, what they wanted to do was improve the price, given that they receive royalties on the cobalt hydroxide that they export. Also, they want to do more processing within the DRC, publicly stating that they are taking back control of their resources.”
Another analyst said the move could also be a targeted attempt by the DRC to push back at the world’s largest cobalt mining firm, China Molybdenum (CMOC), which is part-owned by Chinese EV battery major CATL. In the past couple of years, CMOC has increased the amount of cobalt that it has been producing — one of the reasons why the price has tanked (along with falling demand).
Quotas will be allocated to companies based on historical exports, but it remains unclear who will get what. Using 2024 as the base year would favour CMOC, the world’s largest miner. But 2023 or earlier would mean larger shares for other producers such as Glencore and ERG.
“I can say definitively that we’re going to see midstream inventories being drawn down over the next year or two, at the expense of real cobalt consumption.”
Meanwhile, Indonesia is becoming an increasingly key cobalt supplier, and the DRC’s move could give Jakarta an important foothold.
However, Matthews agreed with suggestions that none of this was likely to reverse the slump in the EV market any time soon.
Separately, Sweden-based African Security Analysis warned on September 25 that the DRC’s decision would usher in new uncertainties and could pressure non-compliant or foreign actors into aligning with Congolese industrial policy.
Risks could include corruption in quota distribution and fuel smuggling of raw material across porous borders, especially through Rwanda and Zambia, ASN said.
The quota regime will also complicate supply security strategies, reinforcing the urgency of direct partnerships with the DRC.
Meanwhile, ASN said automakers dependent on cobalt-heavy chemistries may accelerate diversification into alternative chemistries, such as LFP, or manganese-rich varieties, but most remain tied to Congolese supply for the foreseeable future.
Batteries International reported last July that the Ultium Cells battery joint venture in the US was upgrading its facility in Tennessee for the production of LFP cells.
The General Motors and LG Energy Solution joint venture said conversion of existing battery cell lines at the Spring Hill site would start this year, with commercial production expected by late 2027.
GM’s VP of batteries, propulsion and sustainability, Kurt Kelty, said the move was to take advantage of lower-cost LFP cell technologies.
The DRC indicated in 2024 that it was tightening its grip on cobalt, when state-owned miner Gecamines refused to approve the sale of cobalt miner Chemaf and its Congolese assets to Chinese miner Norin Mining.
Chemaf leases the permit for its flagship Mutoshi project from Gecamines, which said in a statement it had the right of approval of the ownership transfer and that its board had voted to reject the deal. Chemaf is apparently close to going bankrupt unless sold soon according to a recent Bloomberg news piece.
Batteries International reported in March 2024 that US lead miner and recycler, the Doe Run Company, had been awarded a $7 million federal contract to build and commission a demonstration plant for the production of cobalt and nickel critical to the nation’s battery manufacturing sector.
Under the Doe Run Technology Investment Agreement with the Department of Defense, the plant will be built at the company’s technology center in Missouri to show it can extract cobalt and nickel from its existing mining operations.
