May 8, 2025: Global demand for refined lead metal is set to edge upwards this year, with the US expected to lead the way in a turnaround from a fall last year, according to latest analysis.

Separately, James Griffiths, lead analyst at CRU said at the recent BCI convention in San Antonio, that he expected the price of lead to remain stable at around $2,100 per tonne in the near term.

The Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said on April 25 that global demand for refined lead metal is forecast to increase by 1.5% in 2025 to more than 13 million tonnes.

In the US, after falling by 8.3% in 2024, ‘apparent’ (production + imports-exports + stock) usage is forecast to partially recover by 4.3%.

In Europe, usage in 2024 was impacted by a decline in passenger car production and fell by 4.4%. However, European demand is expected to rise by nearly 2% this year, the group said.

Chinese demand is forecast to increase by nearly 1% this year, after falling by 1.3% in 2024.

Elsewhere, demand is expected to rise in Brazil, India and Japan but to fall in South Korea.

The group said, based on information from ILZSG member countries, the global supply of refined lead metal is expected to exceed demand by 82,000 tonnes this year.

Meanwhile, world lead mine production is forecast to grow by 2.3% to nearly 5 million tonnes in 2025, principally due to rises in China, Mexico and Europe — where the recent commissioning of mining capacity will result in increased output in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ireland and Russia.

An expected increase in world refined lead metal output of nearly 2% (to more than 13 million tonnes in 2025) will be mainly influenced by rises in China, India, Mexico and the US. In Europe and South Korea, however, production is expected to fall.

The ILZSG did not elaborate on anticipated market activity driving its forecasts, but the organization has told Batteries International previously that as the battery sector is by far the main lead-consuming sector, increases in usage would indicate an increase in battery production.