The North American lead market is expected to remain tight through 2028, despite slowing demand for lead acid batteries due to slow production, according to a new study by Battery Council International and research consultancy CRU.

In the automotive lead battery market replacement shipments fell in 2025 by 1.6%, the study said, after 2024 marked the highest growth since 2011. OE lead battery shipments dipped 3.9% in 2025.

However, the study said automotive lead battery shipments are expected to bounce back in 2026, with forecasts of a 1.9% growth rate.

The study of current growth rates and future trends in lead battery markets follows the launch of the organisations’ first such report last year.

In the latest study, unveiled on May 12, full-year 2025 data from BCI on real battery sales is used along with metals market intelligence and expert analysis from CRU.

Other key highlights, for industrial truck and forklift batteries, BCI forecasts a 2.9% annual growth for LAB sales through 2028.

In stationary storage, UPS battery demand increased 21% in 2025, and future lead battery forecasts remain bullish through 2025-2028 with a compound annual growth rate of 4.5%.

Looking at broader lead metals markets, North America’s refined lead market is expected to remain in deficit. Meanwhile, demand increased 2.3% in 2025 and is expected to grow an additional 1.5% in 2026.

In December 2025, BCI issued a rallying call for “long-overdue investment” in US supply chains for critical battery materials, saying North America’s economic future and national security depend on it.

The trade body said that, on balance, 2025 had been a year of progress for the North American energy storage industry, highlighting the US designation of lead as a critical mineral for the first time.