China’s march toward dominating the global battery sector is highlighted in new analysis indicating Chinese firms are set to control 39% of all lithium extracted worldwide by 2030.
Energy data analytics firm Wood Mackenzie’s report, released on May 25, highlights a growing divergence between the geography of lithium production and the nationality of asset owners, noting that China’s predicted grip on Li extraction is on course to rise from a third in 2020.
Australia, long the dominant force in lithium supply, accounted for 43% of global extraction in 2020 ― but by 2030 that share is forecast to fall to 25%, driven not by declining investment, but by faster growth elsewhere particularly across Africa.
Africa’s share of global lithium extraction is expected to rise from near zero in 2020 to 13% by 2030, marking one of the most significant regional supply shifts in the sector.
However, Africa illustrates the growing disconnect between production and ownership. While the continent is expected to account for 13% of global lithium extraction, African-headquartered companies are forecast to own just 1% of global output.
Chinese firms have built significant stakes in Australian and Argentine assets while deploying capital at scale across Africa, “filling a vacuum left by increasingly cautious Western investors” says the report.
Elsewhere, Europe’s ownership share is rising following Rio Tinto’s acquisition of Arcadium Lithium in 2025 and Equinor’s entry into battery materials, while North America’s share has declined following the divestment of US-held assets to Rio Tinto, the report said.
Allan Pedersen, Wood Mackenzie’s research director for energy transition and lithium battery materials, said: “With few exceptions, Africa’s lithium growth has been financed by Chinese capital. That raises important questions around ownership, value capture and long-term supply chain influence as production continues to scale.”
While production growth is becoming more geographically diverse, ownership remains concentrated among a relatively small group of companies, mostly led by China, Pedersen said.
Wood Mackenzie’s report came after Australia-based and Africa-focused Atlantic Lithium said on May 7 it had entered into a binding agreement with China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt for Huayou to acquire all of the issued shares in Atlantic.
The report also echoed analysis published by the International Energy Agency last March, which warned EV plants worldwide faced $17 billion in losses for every month of a potential halt in cell exports by China.
According to the IEA, EV plants in the EU would account for over half of those losses for each month of an interruption in supply chain exports from China.
