Global demand for lithium is set to rise by more than 340% by 2040 as the global transition to clean energy technologies increases pressure on critical mineral supply chains, according to a new UN report.

Clean technologies are also expected to account for a larger share of demand, with their share of lithium demand projected to rise from 62% in 2024 to 87% in 2040, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a report released on June 11.

Meanwhile, critical minerals trade is at a crossroads — and can support export revenues, investment and structural transformation in developing countries or reinforce extractive patterns and fragment markets into competing blocs, the report said.

Graphite demand is projected to increase by 131% over the period and the report points to the need to diversify supply sources, improve market transparency and strengthen international cooperation to help support open, stable, secure, transparent, rules-based and sustainable trade.

UNCTAD said the supply of critical energy transition minerals remains concentrated across reserves, mining, processing and refining, with this concentration especially acute in processing and refining.

In 2025, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for 74% of global cobalt mine production, Indonesia for 67% of global nickel mine production and China for 69% of rare earth mine production.

China also dominates refining for rare earths, lithium and cobalt, while Indonesia accounts for 43% of global nickel refining capacity.

Diversifying processing capacity, promoting recycling and strengthening domestic value chains will take time, the report warned. It will also require long-term investment and coordinated policy support.

Meanwhile, governments are increasingly using trade policy to secure access to critical minerals, strengthen industrial competitiveness and build more resilient supply chains.

Since 2020, nearly 100 new export measures have been introduced on critical energy transition minerals, according to UNCTAD. These include 37 licensing requirements, 31 export taxes, 29 export bans and one export quota. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has introduced the highest number of measures, followed by China and Indonesia.

However, critical mineral partnerships are expanding quickly to help reshape supply chains, often by combining trade, industrial and investment policy tools.

UNCTAD said stronger international cooperation and greater policy coherence are essential and trade policy must support both the development needs of critical-mineral-rich developing countries and the global transition to a low-carbon, digital economy.