October 17, 2025: Global demand for refined lead metal is forecast to continue its steady rise into 2026, increasing by 1% to 14 million tonnes, according to latest forecasts.
The Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said on October 13 demand is set to continuing building on its near 2% increase this year, to just over 13 million tonnes.
After falling by nearly 3% in 2024, European demand is expected to rise by 1.8% as of the end of this year, which ILZSG said will mainly be a consequence of increases in apparent (production + imports-exports + stock) usage in the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and the UK — more than offsetting declines in Finland, Italy and Spain.
Meanwhile, in the US, a significant increase in lead battery imports in 2024 influenced a decline in apparent demand of 8.4%. However, usage this year is expected to recover by nearly 7%, supported by a forecast rise in the domestic production of batteries.
As of the end of this year, usage is also forecast to rise in Brazil, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam, but to decrease in India, Mexico and Thailand.
In China, while production of both cars and e-bikes increased significantly in the first half of 2025, supported by government trade-in policies, net exports of lead acid batteries declined, resulting in an anticipated growth of 0.9% in lead demand this year.
In 2026, demand is forecast to continue to rise in Europe, Vietnam and the US, but to fall by 1.7% in China, the group said.
Meanwhile, world lead mine supply is forecast to grow by 2.2% to nearly 5 million tonnes next year. This will be driven mainly by further increases in Europe and China, and a recovery in output in both Australia and the US.
World refined lead supply is anticipated to rise by 1% to nearly 14 million tonnes in 2026.
Lead metal supply is forecast to continue to rise in Brazil and India, to recover in Kazakhstan, but to decline in China and the UK.
The group said that, based on reports from its member countries, the global supply of refined lead metal is anticipated to exceed demand by 91,000 tonnes this year, with a slightly larger surplus of 102,000 tonnes in 2026.
