March 20, 2026: Lithium batteries represent an increasingly urgent safety risk for global air cargo shipments, according to latest analysis from UL Standards & Engagement’s Thermal Runaway Incident Program.
UL said in a report released on March 10 that reported thermal runaway incidents in air cargo increased by 40% between 2021 and 2025 — and ae increasing at an average yearly rate of 9% — driven by consumer demand for low-cost, battery-powered products.
The report highlighted a supply chain UL said is strained by fragmentation, uneven accountability, and commercial pressures that prioritize speed over safety.
Understanding the core drivers of thermal runaway risk in air cargo, the conditions that allow that risk to persist, and the opportunities to strengthen accountability, coordination, and safety will lead to a stronger and more secure global supply chain, the report said.
Geography is said to be a predictor of cargo risk. With significant differences in manufacturing quality, regulatory oversight, and enforcement rigor across regions, a battery’s country of origin can be an indicator of a heightened threat.
“More than half of known-origin incidents begin in a handful of Asian airports — as do a significant number of battery shipments — contributing to industry perceptions that geographic disparities amplify other risks such as battery quality, shipper behaviour, and third-party involvement.”
However, the report said the issue not about a single country or region, but rather a complex, commercially-driven system that allows for inconsistencies, confusion, and opportunistic noncompliance.
A complex supply chain allows for diffusion of accountability, the report said. Batteries pass through many hands including manufacturers, wholesalers, freight forwarders, consolidators, postal networks, third-party logistics providers, and airlines.
Each link depends heavily on the previous one to comply. This creates a system built on trust, but also one built on plausible deniability.
“When safety issues emerge, the fragmentation offers every stakeholder a scapegoat further upstream or downstream. The complexity of the battery supply chain makes it difficult to pinpoint problems, let alone arrive at solutions.”
UL is now calling for the establishment of clear, enforceable responsibility across the supply chain.
Shippers — especially small and individual ones — need more guidance than airlines realize, and do not appear to be effectively accessing the guidance currently provided by regulators, cargo carriers, or e-commerce platforms, according to UL.
“Cutting corners on battery safety, packaging, or testing creates greater long-term financial, operational, and reputational risk. Regulators and global standards bodies must lead with uniform rules, training requirements, and enforcement structures that make safety the most economically rational choice. Shipping batteries that meet safety standards can reduce risk, as these batteries have proven to be safer and less prone to fire.”
Batteries International reported on March 6 that a new study by Allianz Commercial warned the growing prevalence of lithium ion batteries meant fire had now become an elevated risk to global business on land and at sea.
The latest edition of the Allianz Risk Barometer, which identified major global business risks for 2026, warned that inadequate handling, storage or transportation of Li-ion batteries had been linked to an increasing number of fires in recent years.
