January 5, 2026: Existing global lithium supplies will only meet just over a third of predicted 2035 demand, according to new analysis.

Lithium supply will need to more than double by 2035, according to the white paper From Minerals to Megawatts: Building Resilience for EVs, Data Centres and the Electricity Grid, published in December 2025 by global consultancy Kearney, in partnership with the World Economic Forum.

By 2035, EVs are projected to account for 86% of total lithium demand, 55% of cobalt and one-third of global rare-earth consumption, placing their supply chains at the centre of future mineral balances.

Sectors with a large share of global demand — such as EVs for lithium, and grids for copper and vanadium — can shape market signals, steer investment and accelerate innovation, but are also mutually exposed to vulnerabilities faced by producers that, in turn, rely on their bankable demand to scale capacity, the paper said.

Recycling can help the situation but cannot close these gaps alone. The paper said contributions from recycling can be meaningful for copper and aluminium, citing International Energy Agency estimates.

However, recycling of lithium and rare earths remains nascent due to low end-of-life volumes and insufficient collection and mechanical separation capacity. Recoverable battery volumes are expected only after 2030, as vehicles sold in the early 2020s reach ‘retirement age’.

Additionally, for speciality materials such as graphite, lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese, the top three mining and refining countries hold more than 75% of the market share, the paper said.

“This heightens exposure to single-point disruptions such as operational outages or export controls, which can trigger global price or schedule shocks — even when aggregate supply appears adequate.”

Early warning signs are already apparent, with new capacity for critical minerals still awaiting permits or funding while demand continues to outpace upstream investment, the paper said.

And as battery chemistries and semiconductor designs evolve faster than capacity can respond, this in turn creates mismatches between innovation cycles and supply resilience.

Batteries International reported a warning last October from financial advisory firm, the deVere Group, that the intensifying global battle for control of the rare earths and critical minerals market would be one of the defining investment themes of 2026.