October 4, 2024: The global supply of refined lead metal will exceed demand by 63,000 tonnes this year and see a surplus of 121kt in 2025, according to an updated forecast by the Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group.

The increasing surplus forecast comes after preliminary ILZSG data said world refined lead metal supply had exceeded demand by 15kt during the first half of this year.

The updated information, published on September 30, is based on reports recently received from ILZSG member countries, the organization said.

According to ILZSG, world lead mine supply is forecast to grow by 1.7% to 4.54 million tonnes this year — and expand again to 4.64 million tonnes in 2025.

Asian battery tiger, China, is a driving force in lead demand and the country’s needs are set to increase by nearly 1% this year and by 0.5% in 2025. However, ILZSG noted that Chinese production of lead acid batteries grew by a “more modest” 0.5% over the first half of this year, following a rise of 10.5% in 2023.

Demand is also forecast to recover in Europe, after an expected fall of nearly 2% this year, and continue to rise in Mexico, India and Vietnam.