November 11, 2024: Donald Trump’s re-election win as US president on November 5 and later control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate has had an immediate impact on both the lead and lithium battery markets, in terms of resources and stock market valuations.
With the exception of the price of lead which remained steady there was an initial sell-off in the price of most battery metals — lithium, manganese, cobalt and nickel.
“A drop in market demand for these metals was reflected in the falling price, given the expectation that the new Trump administration will be less supportive of the nascent EV market in the country,” says Neil Hawkes, lead metal analyst at research consultancy CRU.
“The initial stability of the price of lead shows that the immediate reaction of the market is positive for lead batteries and the ICE automotive industry.”
The incoming Trump administration will only be negative for some aspects of the landmark Inflation Reduction Act introduced by the Biden government in 2022 — most notably Section 30D of the policy which provides tax credits of up to $7,500 to new EV buyers.
There are two reasons for an underlying support for the IRA. The first is that many of the aims of president Biden’s policy are defensive for the country’s automotive sector and fit in with Trump’s “America First” thinking.
Second, according to analysis by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence two days after the election, “IRA investment flowed primarily into Republican states, with this proportion growing following the election results. Up to 92% of IRA investments are now in red states (including states yet to declare but looking likely to vote Republican).”
According to Rho Motion, the IRA has attracted over $110 billion in investments in the EV and battery sectors. The battery industry has seen the largest share, with nearly $64 billion invested across 34 gigafactory projects.
The share price of renewable energy firms suffered, mostly across the board. Trump does not believe the climate is changing because of burning fossil fuel and will be supportive of the oil majors. Among the many losers are Enphase Energy, Nordex, Orsted and Vestas and exchange traded funds Invesco Solar and ICLN.
One notable exception has been an 8% leap in Tesla shares where Tesla’s market value closed above $1 trillion on Friday. This was based on expectations that CEO Elon Musk’s companies will get favorable treatment under President-elect Donald Trump for his extensive support during the poll campaign.
