May 20, 2021: Lithium-based batteries will make up almost the entire sector of industrial batteries by 2030, according to EUROBAT’s analysis of a market report by Avicenne Energy on May 17, with lead-based batteries only remaining dominant in UPS and telecoms applications.
The key conclusions in Avicenne’s EU Battery Demand and Supply (20419-2030) in a Global Context report include the prediction that the preferred technology in the industrial battery sector — which includes energy storage systems, motive batteries, UPS and telecoms — will see a major shift to lithium, with ESS almost exclusively lithium-ion.
In motive power, where lead batteries are dominant today with a 90% share, the preference will shift dramatically in lithium’s favour until it is the majority technology.
Lead will hold its own in UPS and telecoms.
However, the lead battery sector will remain dominant across all levels of e-mobility, the report says, and continue to be dominant in the 12V market for SLI and auxiliary functions.
“We do see a dip in the forecast for motive industrial batteries in the short term but it picks up again out to 2030,” said Alistair Davidson, managing director of the Consortium for Battery Innovation.
“Remember these are just forecasts — but the key point is the Avicenne data published by EUROBAT also points to growth in both battery technologies, as demand increases, and while the growth in lithium is steeper, the requirement for lead batteries remains consistent and is increasing overall.
“And as battery performance continues to improve, we expect to see demand for lead batteries grow as more users value the safety, quality and reliability of the technology and the lifetime cost of ownership as a major benefit.”
The report also predicts massive growth in lithium-ion battery production in Europe, with a 10-fold future growth potential.
“Europe is ready to meet demand, although currently heavily reliant on imports,” it says, with e-mobility being the driver for growth.
With lead-based batteries, “Europe will retain its strong position in 2030 and remain very competitive, but ongoing investment is needed to maintain/improve production and for R&D,” it says.
“The take-up of lithium technology is of course growing significantly – but the issue is the demand for all forms of battery energy storage is going to be so high that both lead and lithium are really the only two technologies capable of operating at that scale,” said Davidson.
“And at an application level, customers will choose what’s right for them, but we are confident that advanced lead batteries will maintain strong market penetration and growth across motive and other markets.
“As performance improves we will see greater take-up, and that’s part of what is driving CBI’s newly launched research projects this year.”
EUROBAT says both lithium ion and lead-based batteries “will be the two mainstream technologies by 2030 and both are required to serve the anticipated increase in demand and the different applications.” Both, it says, will be critical for the ‘clean energy transition’.
“Independent market information, offering us a good understanding of both battery demand and production in Europe – today and in the future — is crucial for understanding the state of the industry,” said Rene Schroeder, EUROBAT executive director.
“It is very encouraging to see that from one side the EU lead-based battery industry will retain its strong position, while local lithium-based battery production will ramp up dramatically, making the EU self-sufficient by 2024.”
But as ever in the world of market projections nothing is completely certain. Talk that flow batteries would also be caught up in this rising tide of demand for storage two years ago has re-emerged.
Chinese research firm QY Research predicted this May that the vanadium redox battery market would increase in value by 10 times by 2027. It is “projected to reach $8.55 billion by 2027, at a CAGR of 38.3%”. This assumed the market was valued at $884 million last year.
