July 19, 2024: Solid state lithium and sodium ion batteries will be the only commercialized emerging technologies by 2030, according to management consultants Bain & Co.

However, their joint share of the global battery market will still be small, and since they are still in the prototype and pilot manufacturing stages their market share will stay in the single digit range until 2030.

“Solid-state batteries promise significantly higher energy density versus NMC, along with improved safety, faster charging, and potentially longer life,” says the report. “However, players have only recently been able to demonstrate initial proofs of concept following multiple delays, and commercialization is likely three to four years away.

“Sodium-ion cells promise lower cost than lithium-ion, along with improved safety and the ability to operate at lower temperatures. However, energy density has historically been substantially lower, but there has been progress on this front, with prototypes delivering energy densities comparable with LFP.”

 A lot of firms have announced plans to scale production by 2025, and Mahadevan Seetharaman, a Bengaluru-based partner at Bain & Company’s Advanced Manufacturing Services practice expects commercial availability of sodium-ion-based EVs by the first half of 2025.

Seetharaman expects global battery demand to quadruple to 4,100GWh between 2023 and 2030 as EV sales continue to rise. “Batteries are the single biggest cost driver for OEMs and they influence product performance.

“However, ongoing flux across battery chemistries, especially within lithium-ion batteries, are affecting OEM product roadmaps. OEMs across the world face the critical choice of which battery type to use and whether to develop batteries in-house or through collaboration with other companies.”