The global supply of refined lead metal is forecast to soar to 163kt in 2027, according to latest data from the Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG).

Worldwide supply of refined lead metal is already expected by the group to exceed demand by 90kt by the end of 2026. ILZSG’s latest forecasts were presented at the organisation’s attendees at its 71st two-day session on October 15-16.

Global demand for refined lead metal is forecast to increase by 0.9% to 13.79 million tonnes this year and by 1% to 13.92 million tonnes in 2027.

In China, despite stable demand from the replacement battery market, declines in both lead acid battery exports and vehicle production will limit growth in lead usage to only 0.2% in 2026, according to the group.

European demand is expected to increase by 1.3% in 2026, mainly due to rises in apparent usage (production + imports-exports + stock) in Germany, Greece, Poland, Slovenia and Spain, which will more than offset declines in France and the UK.

Usage is also forecast to rise in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico and the US, but to decrease in South Korea and Turkey.

Meanwhile, world lead mine supply is forecast to fall by 2.8% to 4.44 million tonnes in 2026. Production is expected to recover by 2.9% to 4.58 million tonnes in 2027.

ILZSG said a similar trend is anticipated in China, where output is forecast to decline by 1% in 2026, followed by a significant recovery of more than 4% in 2027.

In 2026, refined lead output is expected to increase in India, South Korea, Turkey and Brazil, where new secondary capacity was commissioned in 2025. However, ILZSG said these increases will be partially offset by a reduction in China.

In 2027, metal supply is forecast to continue to rise in India and South Korea, to recover in China, but to decline marginally in Europe.

Batteries International reported a warning by Tianneng Power International earlier this year of a potential half-year profit fall of up to 66% as high raw material costs hit its mainstay lead acid battery business.

However, the China-based lead battery major, part of the Tianneng Group, said long-term prospects were strong.